券商中国·2025-04-20 14:25Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that China's policy options are more abundant, providing greater space and endurance compared to the U.S. during the trade war stalemate [1] - A-shares are seen as a key factor in boosting confidence, with a belief in the government's commitment to stabilize the capital market [1] - The article suggests that sectors benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, and materials that do not rely on short-term performance will outperform [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to be more self-reliant, with a stable domestic economic foundation and timely responses to external uncertainties [2] - Internal demand and self-sufficiency are highlighted as focal points for economic momentum and short-term policy support [2] - The market is better prepared psychologically to handle external uncertainties compared to the previous trade conflict in 2018 [2] Group 3 - A-shares are anticipated to see a stabilization in risk appetite, with defensive assets likely to yield absolute and relative returns during adjustment phases [3] - The technology sector is expected to gain weight in the market as confidence in capital market stability increases [3][4] - The next phase of A-share market growth is likely to be driven by structural technology trends [4] Group 4 - The configuration value of the A-share market is expected to rise, supported by a resilient domestic economy and ample policy reserves [5] - The market is projected to achieve stable and healthy long-term development as it adapts to tariff policies [5] Group 5 - The Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not yet over, with a shift in the main contradictions of valuation [6] - A decline in discount rates is identified as a key driver for the stock market's rise by 2025 [6] Group 6 - The market's downward volatility risk is considered limited, with a focus on internal demand policies [7] - The upcoming months are expected to see more fiscal policy implementation, particularly in May and June [7] Group 7 - The A-share market is viewed as having controllable downside risks and potential for upward movement, with a focus on sectors experiencing local economic recovery [9] - Recommendations include sectors with high free cash flow and low penetration but high growth potential, such as AI and humanoid robots [9] Group 8 - The resilience of A-shares and the government's determination to stabilize the stock market are emphasized, with a favorable outlook for medium to long-term investments [10] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an advantage over global indices due to valuation benefits [10] Group 9 - The short-term equity market is in a consolidation phase, but domestic policy support and resilient internal demand are expected to maintain its relative strength [11] - Focus areas include domestic technology self-sufficiency and quality assets benefiting from domestic demand expansion [11] Group 10 - The expectation of a rebound in global recession forecasts suggests a need for China to find suitable demand to maintain its manufacturing capacity advantage [13] - Recommended sectors include consumer industries benefiting from domestic demand and resource products amid global economic restructuring [13]