美国“新次贷”大雷，哈佛耶鲁引爆？

Core Viewpoint - The private equity industry on Wall Street is facing a perfect storm characterized by asset lock-up, trading deadlock, valuation crises, and liquidity exhaustion [1][20]. Group 1: Impact of Ivy League Universities - Ivy League universities, particularly Yale and Harvard, are under pressure to sell private equity investments due to threats from the Trump administration regarding their tax-exempt status [3][4]. - Yale University is reportedly seeking to sell up to $6 billion of its private equity portfolio, which represents 15% of its $41.4 billion endowment fund, marking its first secondary market sale [3][7]. - Harvard's endowment fund, which is close to $52 billion, has a significant portion (approximately 40%) invested in private equity, indicating a high exposure to market risks [9][11]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Potential Crisis - The potential sell-off by these prestigious universities could signal a broader crisis in the private equity market, reminiscent of a new "subprime crisis," leading to a revaluation of private equity assets [4][21]. - The ongoing trading deadlock and the significant drop in stock prices of major private equity firms like Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR (over 20% this year) further exacerbate the situation [20]. - Analysts warn that if Harvard is forced to liquidate its liquid assets, it could trigger a chain reaction affecting hedge funds and venture capital supported by endowment funds [25][26]. Group 3: Structural Issues in Endowment Funds - The traditional model of endowment funds, which emphasizes long-term investments with low liquidity and tax advantages, is under threat as political pressures mount [5][25]. - The shift in investment strategy, particularly Harvard's reduction of real estate and natural resources investments from 25% to 6% in favor of private equity, highlights the risks associated with high exposure to illiquid assets [14]. - The current environment suggests that liquidity, once a secondary concern, is now a critical issue for these institutions, potentially leading to a tightening effect in capital markets [26].