美国债务水平不可持续，若美债违约将带来什么影响？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The current global monetary system, characterized by high levels of debt in debtor nations like the U.S. and significant holdings of debt assets by creditor nations, is unsustainable and will require transformation [5][6]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - As of April 2025, the total U.S. federal debt is projected to be approximately $36 trillion, accounting for about 35% of global GDP, with a per capita debt exceeding $100,000 [1]. - The total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds maturing in the second quarter of 2025 is around $6.5 trillion [1]. Group 2: Consequences of U.S. Debt Default - A potential default on U.S. debt could lead to a collapse of the dollar's credit, prompting countries to accelerate de-dollarization and shift towards assets like gold and the yuan, resulting in a significant drop in the dollar's exchange rate and increased inflationary pressures in the U.S. [3]. - Global financial markets would experience turmoil, with U.S. Treasury yields surging (e.g., 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%), leading to higher borrowing costs and potential liquidity crises [3]. - The U.S. economy could enter a recession, with government shutdowns, interruptions in social security payments, and rising social tensions, potentially resulting in widespread layoffs and consumption decline [3]. Group 3: Global Monetary Order - The current monetary order is collapsing due to unsustainable debt levels, with a critical point reached where debtor nations continue to accumulate debt while creditor nations hold excessive debt assets [5][6]. - In a de-globalized world, major countries are losing mutual trust, leading to significant trade and capital imbalances [5]. Group 4: U.S. Tariff Wars - The structural contradictions of dollar hegemony, such as trade deficits and the outflow of manufacturing, have driven the U.S. to engage in tariff wars, with the aim of reducing trade deficits through measures like "reciprocal tariffs" [8]. - Domestic economic and political pressures, including the desire for manufacturing to return to the U.S. and the need for increased government revenue through tariffs, are also motivating factors behind the tariff wars [8]. - The conflict between financial capital and industrial capital is highlighted, with financial interests often driving manufacturing out of the U.S., complicating the effectiveness of tariff policies [9]. Group 5: Measures to Address U.S. Debt Issues - The Federal Reserve may consider lowering interest rates to reduce new debt costs, although this is constrained by inflationary pressures [11]. - The U.S. may face a technical default risk in August-September 2025 if political deadlock over the debt ceiling persists, prompting central banks to increase gold holdings and diversify currency reserves [11]. - The U.S. debt situation is described as entering a "vicious cycle," relying on short-term borrowing while long-term solutions require fiscal reform [12].