21世纪经济报道·2025-04-20 09:17Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant downturn in the computing power infrastructure sector, driven by AI technology iterations and reduced capital expenditures from major players, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the industry [2][3][5]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Several companies, including Feilixin, Lianhua Holdings, and Jinjis Co., have terminated multi-million yuan computing power leasing contracts, indicating a broader trend of supply-demand imbalance in the industry [3]. - IDC companies like GDS Holdings and Runze Technology are facing a "prisoner's dilemma," with many top firms' debt ratios exceeding the 65% warning line [4]. - Recent regulatory scrutiny of IDC industry REITs reflects concerns about the quality of underlying assets and growth expectations in the sector [5][27]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global market is undergoing a paradigm shift in computing power development, with companies like Microsoft scaling back their AI data center investments [8]. - High-frequency trading reports indicate a systematic revaluation of the AI infrastructure sector, with a notable decline in the "Energy + AI" investment portfolio since January [9]. - The anticipated peak in global data center capacity has been moved up to 2025, with supply-demand dynamics expected to improve between 2024 and 2027, although average utilization rates will remain above historical averages [10]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - In China, the computing power scale reached 246 EFLOPS by mid-2024, with intelligent computing power applications growing over 65% year-on-year, yet the average cabinet utilization remains low at 20%-30% [11]. - Many companies that ventured into computing power leasing in 2023 have since reversed course, with significant contract terminations reported [14][15]. - The low utilization rates and declining rental prices have led to many intelligent computing centers struggling to cover operational costs, with little hope for investment returns [16]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - Recent government-led initiatives aim to assess computing power resources, targeting the chaotic expansion of data centers [6][17]. - The regulatory focus on the industry highlights structural issues such as supply-demand imbalances and resource misallocation, suggesting a shift towards quality improvement in infrastructure construction [18][19]. Group 5: Financial Risks - The high debt levels in the IDC sector are concerning, with companies like GDS Holdings and Runze Technology reporting debt ratios of 67.86% and 66.02%, respectively [23]. - The reliance on debt financing for expansion poses significant risks, especially with long project payback periods and imbalances between short-term debt pressures and long-term cash flow generation [24]. - Regulatory feedback on REIT projects indicates a cautious approach towards growth expectations in the data center industry, emphasizing the need for sustainable cash flow and operational stability [28]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The industry faces a dual pressure of supply-demand dynamics and stringent regulatory scrutiny, making it crucial for IDC companies to balance short-term survival with long-term growth [30]. - There are mixed opinions on whether the industry will see a reversal in growth trends, with some experts noting strong customer loyalty and ongoing demand, while others remain concerned about excess computing power and resource constraints [31][32]. - Overall, the narrative of high growth in the computing power sector is retreating, but the long-term outlook may lead to a healthier supply-demand balance if companies can find equilibrium between financial stability and technological advancement [33].