【广发金工】市场缩量调整（20250420）

Market Performance - The recent 5 trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.31%, the ChiNext Index by 0.64%, while large-cap value stocks rose by 2.62% and large-cap growth stocks fell by 0.24% [1] - The banking and real estate sectors performed well, while defense, military, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds, has reached historical extremes, with values exceeding 4% on multiple occasions since 2016 [1] - As of April 18, 2025, the risk premium stood at 4.05%, with the two-standard deviation boundary at 4.74% [1] Valuation Levels - As of April 18, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's TTM PE percentile is at 47%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 60% and 45% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index is relatively undervalued at close to 9% [2] - The long-term view of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with the current adjustment phase starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last 5 trading days, ETF inflows totaled 24.3 billion yuan, while margin trading decreased by approximately 3.4 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1,076.1 billion yuan across the two markets [3] AI and Data Analysis - The use of convolutional neural networks to model price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes, indicating a focus on sectors such as banking and securities as of April 18, 2025 [2][8]