【广发策略】不同板块回补缺口情况和后续风格节奏判断

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" announced on April 2, which caused a temporary disruption in global assets, with some industries recovering while others remain affected [3][33] - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE 50) showed the smallest decline and has recovered nearly all losses, while the ChiNext Index has the least recovery [4][34] - The article references historical market trends following tariff escalations, suggesting that indices will likely remain in a volatile range with narrowing fluctuations [5][35] Group 2 - Domestic demand assets have shown minimal impact from tariffs, with most sectors recovering losses and returning to pre-tariff levels, indicating high policy expectations [9][37] - Key sectors include stable value industries like state-owned banks and utilities, which experienced maximum declines of around 5%, and consumer goods sectors such as beverages and food services [10][38] - The article notes that while some domestic sectors have shown structural strengths, the overall market is pricing in expectations for policy stimulus [14][45] Group 3 - Technology assets have not yet recovered from their declines, with many sectors experiencing drops of 15% to 30%, particularly in consumer electronics [17][49] - The semiconductor industry has shown the most recovery, while consumer electronics have not yet regained half of their losses [50][51] - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of technology and suggests increasing focus on the sector after the upcoming quarterly reports [22][52] Group 4 - The export chain has faced significant short-term impacts, with declines generally between 10% and 25%, and recovery levels remaining low [24][53] - Some export-oriented companies have begun to recover their losses, particularly those with non-U.S. exposure and strong Q1 performance [30][54] - The article highlights potential opportunities in sectors like wind energy, motorcycles, and engineering machinery, which are expected to benefit from improved European demand [56][57]