美国经济警报拉响！究竟有哪些隐藏的“经济地雷”？

Economic Risks in the US - The probability of an economic recession in the US is projected to reach 50.04% by April 2025, with a peak of 61.79% by August 2025 [3] - The US GDP growth rate for 2024 is forecasted at 2.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year, but the outlook for 2025 has been downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, indicating a significant reduction in growth potential [5] National Debt Concerns - As of April 10, 2025, the total US national debt has reached $36.22 trillion, equating to approximately $106,000 per American citizen [8] - The national debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to hit 124.1% in 2024, with the fiscal deficit accounting for 6.95% of GDP. The fiscal deficit for the first quarter of 2025 has already reached $596.19 billion, a 7.49% increase from the previous year [9] Dollar Stability and Market Confidence - The US dollar is facing challenges as its status as the global reserve currency is under threat, with the dollar index dropping from 104.2263 to 99.6920, a decline of 4.35% [11] - The average real yield on long-term US Treasury bonds reached 2.66%, the highest since April 2009, reflecting market concerns about the long-term stability of the dollar [11] Federal Reserve Challenges - The US tariff policy is complicating the Federal Reserve's independence and its ability to lower interest rates, as rising bond yields and tariffs create conflicting economic pressures [14] - Recent inflation data shows a decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.4% year-on-year in March 2024, but potential tariff implementations could reverse this trend and increase inflation [14] Trade Deficit and Global Supply Chains - The US trade deficit reached a record $130.65 billion in January 2024, indicating strong external demand and a significant outflow of capital from the US economy [16] - If tariffs are fully implemented, they may lead to higher import prices, creating input inflation that could further squeeze consumer spending [16] Impact on Trade Relations - Canada is seeking to diversify its trade relationships due to the impact of US tariffs, with significant exports to the US being affected [18] - Mexico is also accelerating efforts to establish regional supply chain collaborations and explore trade agreements with South American and Asian countries in response to US tariff policies [20] Conclusion - The underlying economic contradictions in the US revolve around the desire for globalization benefits while ensuring absolute security, raising questions about who will ultimately bear the costs of this economic gamble [23]