【广发宏观吴棋滢】如何理解一季度财政数据

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first quarter, indicating a proactive fiscal policy response to economic conditions, with a notable emphasis on the early issuance of ordinary government bonds to stimulate spending [1][4][7]. Group 1: Narrow Fiscal Analysis - In Q1, the general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with tax revenue down by 3.5%, similar to the previous year's decline of 3.4%, potentially linked to the need for improvement in PPI and nominal growth [1][4]. - Expenditure in Q1 increased by 4.2%, driven primarily by the significant pre-issuance of ordinary government bonds, reaching about 30% of the annual target, the highest level for this period in recent years [1][4][5]. - The revenue-expenditure gap reached 1.26 trillion yuan, the highest for this period in recent years, reflecting weaker revenue and stronger expenditure trends [5][7]. Group 2: Broad Fiscal Analysis - The government fund revenue in Q1 fell by 11%, while expenditure rose by 11.1%, resulting in a revenue-expenditure gap of 1 trillion yuan, indicating a more proactive fiscal stance compared to the previous year [7][9]. - The decline in land transfer revenue was significant, with a 15.9% drop, which may not yet reflect the improved performance in land sales reported by other sources [9][22]. - The central government has pre-allocated funds for new projects, including 810 million yuan for upgrades and 2.3 billion yuan for project construction, contributing to Q1 expenditure [7][9]. Group 3: Monthly Trends - March showed a marginal improvement in fiscal performance, with public budget revenue increasing by 0.3% year-on-year, a recovery from the previous decline of 1.6% [2][14]. - Tax revenue in March decreased by 2.2%, a smaller decline compared to the previous month's 3.9%, with domestic VAT and corporate income tax being the main contributors to the recovery [2][14]. - Expenditure in March accelerated to a 5.7% increase year-on-year, driven by social security, education, and debt interest payments, reflecting a shift in fiscal support from tax revenue to bond income [2][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The early issuance of bonds aligns with the policy spirit of "early if possible, rather than late," with expectations for increased project funding in the coming months [3][23]. - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, with plans for the issuance of long-term special bonds starting on April 24, which is a month earlier than last year [3][23]. - The market expects further fiscal expansion, particularly in response to changing external trade conditions and the need for domestic economic stimulation [3][23].