债市启明｜如何看待二季度政府债供给压力

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in government bond issuance, with a net financing scale of approximately 1.77 trillion yuan in Q2, which is about 700 billion yuan higher than the same period last year [1][3] - In Q1, the net financing scale of government bonds exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 22% of the annual plan of 6.66 trillion yuan, indicating a faster issuance pace compared to previous years [2] - The total issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 reached a historical high of 2.84 trillion yuan, with special refinancing bonds contributing significantly to the increase [2] Group 2 - The issuance plan for special government bonds in Q2 shows an accelerated pace compared to 2024, reflecting a clear tendency for fiscal policy to take the lead [3] - The expected total issuance scale of local bonds in Q2 is 2.8 trillion yuan, with a net issuance scale close to 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust fiscal activity [3][4] - The necessity for monetary policy support is increasing as fiscal policy expands, with potential measures including reserve requirement ratio cuts and increased open market operations to enhance liquidity supply [4]