【招银研究|行业深度】新型物流基建篇①——我们为什么要投资建设运河？

Core Viewpoint - The high logistics costs in China are rooted in the long-standing imbalance in transportation structure and insufficient efficiency of multimodal transport, necessitating the construction of canal networks and high-grade waterways to optimize transportation structure and reduce overall logistics costs [1][5]. Group 1: Logistics Cost Optimization and Transportation Structure Upgrade - The construction of canals can optimize national logistics costs, rationally allocate water resources, and support ecological restoration while helping inland areas break geographical constraints for industrial restructuring [5][8]. - In 2023, the ratio of social logistics costs to GDP in China was 14.4%, higher than the average level of developed countries, indicating a pressing need to lower logistics costs and enhance efficiency [8][10]. - The reliance on road transport, which accounts for over 70% of freight volume, results in higher unit costs and carbon emissions compared to water transport, highlighting the need for structural adjustments [11][13]. Group 2: Waterway Construction and Economic Geography - The construction of inland canals is reshaping China's economic geography, facilitating cross-regional linkages between low-cost energy in the west and logistics advantages in the east, thus providing a foundation for optimizing industrial layout [7][25]. - The West River waterway network compresses freight time between the southwest region and the Greater Bay Area to 36 hours, promoting a multi-center, networked industrial layout [7][31]. Group 3: Investment in Water Transport Infrastructure - China's water transport system is being developed through a three-tier layout of "high-standard infrastructure—coordinated transport—smart nodes," with a projected investment gap of approximately 1 trillion yuan over the next decade for high-standard waterway construction [2][34]. - The market size for upgrading smart ports, which are crucial for multimodal transport, is estimated to reach 1.3 trillion yuan, with about 80% of the 2,878 major berths nationwide facing the need for intelligent transformation [2][54]. Group 4: Ecological Restoration and Water Resource Allocation - Canals play a vital role in water resource allocation and ecological restoration, as demonstrated by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, which has significantly improved water supply conditions in northern regions [17][19]. - The economic value of water resource allocation through canals has been validated, with significant reductions in agricultural water costs and improvements in groundwater levels in areas like Hebei [18][21]. Group 5: Multimodal Transport Development - The development of multimodal transport is essential for enhancing the efficiency of canal systems, with significant progress observed in rail-water intermodal transport, which has seen a 15% year-on-year increase in 2024 [49][50]. - The integration of various transport modes can effectively overcome geographical limitations, improve logistics efficiency, and promote high-quality development of the logistics system [45][49]. Group 6: Future Prospects and Strategic Importance - The construction of high-standard waterways is expected to improve the balance of regional industrial distribution in China, facilitating the development of energy-intensive industries in the west while alleviating pressures in the east [31][32]. - The strategic importance of developing smart ports and multimodal transport systems is underscored by the need for enhanced resource integration and operational efficiency in the logistics sector [54][53].