高工锂电·2025-04-23 11:28Core Viewpoint - The competition between ternary and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries is intensifying globally, with LFP gaining a slight edge in the domestic market while ternary batteries maintain dominance overseas [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of early 2025, global sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.28 million units, a 27% year-on-year increase, driving battery installation to approximately 118.5 GWh, up 32% year-on-year [2]. - The installation of ternary batteries accounted for 58.7 GWh (49.5%), while LFP batteries reached 59.1 GWh (49.9%), indicating a near parity in the global market [2]. - In the domestic market, LFP battery installations exceeded 80% in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of over 90% [2]. Group 2: Shifts in Battery Technology - Since 2021, LFP has solidified its leading position in the domestic market, while ternary batteries have historically dominated overseas markets [3]. - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to a price war among traditional automakers, prompting a reevaluation of their electrification strategies, with a focus on LFP [3][4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - BYD and CATL are set to launch second-generation blade and supercharging batteries, pushing LFP fast-charging capabilities to 10C, enabling charging speeds comparable to refueling [5]. - The introduction of 4C LFP batteries and innovations in cell-to-pack (CTP) structures are expected to enhance the market penetration of LFP batteries [4]. Group 4: International Expansion - Chinese battery companies are exporting LFP technology through partnerships and factory setups abroad, such as CATL's support for Ford's U.S. factory and other collaborations in Vietnam and Europe [5][6]. - International battery manufacturers are also ramping up LFP production, with LG and Samsung planning significant capacity expansions [6]. Group 5: Future Projections - By 2028, LFP batteries are expected to capture 60% of the overseas market share, indicating a significant shift in global battery dynamics [7]. - Despite the growth of LFP, ternary batteries still dominate the export market, accounting for 60% of total exports in early 2025 [8]. Group 6: Material Trends - The demand for high-pressure LFP materials has surged, leading to price increases and significant orders from major companies like BYD and CATL [12]. - The export volume of LFP from China reached 1,221 tons in January 2025, marking a 34% month-on-month increase and a 916% year-on-year increase [12]. Group 7: Strategic Adjustments - In response to the declining market share of ternary batteries, companies are exploring new product forms, such as large cylindrical batteries and solid-state batteries, to regain competitiveness [8][9]. - The global demand for large cylindrical batteries is projected to grow from 155 GWh in 2025 to 650 GWh by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 33% [10].