黄金期权从9800%涨幅到仅剩0.04元，什么是末日轮陷阱？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, which have increased by nearly 30% this year, and discusses the implications of this volatility for investors [1][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The international gold price's deviation rate has reached historical extremes, with a 98% percentile deviation from the 20-day moving average and a 99% percentile deviation from the 60-day moving average, indicating a high risk of further price increases [3][4]. - Domestic gold ETFs have doubled in size within two months, with total assets nearing 160 billion yuan, up from approximately 70 billion yuan on February 28 and over 90 billion yuan on March 31, reflecting accelerated inflows [4][8]. Group 2: Options Market Insights - Near-expiry out-of-the-money gold options experienced a maximum increase of 9800%, showcasing a "doomsday effect," but their value plummeted to 0.04 yuan shortly after, highlighting the speculative nature of such options [4][6]. - The majority of investors are unlikely to purchase deep out-of-the-money options due to their high probability of expiring worthless, similar to betting on an unlikely sports comeback [6][7]. Group 3: Long-term Gold Investment Logic - Gold is viewed as a robust asset for 2023, driven by factors such as inflation hedging, risk aversion, and the increasing accumulation of gold by central banks, with the share of gold in global reserves rising from 8.7% in 2001 to 18.3% by Q1 2025 [8]. - The article suggests that as long as the themes of inflation protection, risk aversion, and central bank purchases persist, gold remains a favorable investment, despite short-term volatility [8].