对华关税或降至50%，“关税闹剧”出现转折点？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive signals from the U.S. regarding tariffs on China, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions and a shift in U.S. policy towards a more favorable stance on tariffs [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Changes - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the current trade conflict with China is unsustainable, suggesting a possible easing of tensions [3]. - The Trump administration is considering a tiered tariff system, imposing 35% tariffs on goods not deemed a national security threat and at least 100% on those considered strategic, with a gradual reduction planned [6][7]. - The financial markets reacted positively to these developments, with U.S. stock indices rising for two consecutive days [9]. Group 2: Financial Market Reactions - The article notes that the recent tariff discussions have led to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. credit [15][18]. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose sharply from 3.86% to 4.59% within a short period, reflecting increased selling pressure [18]. - The U.S. dollar index has also declined significantly, dropping below 100 points, which signals weakening confidence in the dollar [21]. Group 3: China's Response and Currency Internationalization - In response to the evolving situation, China has made strides in internationalizing the renminbi, with a new action plan aimed at enhancing cross-border financial services [27][28]. - The CIPS system, China's version of SWIFT, is expanding, with coverage now reaching 119 countries and a projected settlement amount of 175.49 trillion yuan for 2024, a 42.6% increase year-on-year [30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting the use of the renminbi in international trade to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and enhance China's financial stability [33][34]. Group 4: Long-term Implications and Strategies - The article suggests that the ongoing tariff negotiations will be a protracted process, with U.S. officials indicating that discussions will be challenging [38]. - It highlights the need for China to continue pushing for renminbi internationalization as a strategic response to potential financial conflicts with the U.S. [43][49]. - The article concludes that while the path to replacing the dollar as the world's primary currency is fraught with challenges, the current U.S. policies may provide a unique opportunity for China to strengthen its financial position [49][51].