地产｜行业限产好过囚徒博弈：再谈现房时代

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of reforming the pre-sale system in the real estate market, advocating for the promotion of selling completed properties to stabilize prices and improve quality [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Supply and Demand - The initial purpose of the pre-sale system was to increase supply and improve living conditions quickly, but the current market has shifted to a state of oversupply, making the pre-sale system less relevant [2]. - Developers are caught in a dilemma where controlling supply is essential for the industry, yet individual companies may pursue faster turnover to enhance their return on equity (ROE), leading to a downward spiral in overall industry ROE due to price reductions [2]. Group 2: Transition to Selling Completed Properties - Gradually promoting the sale of completed properties encourages developers to focus on product quality rather than turnover speed, potentially preventing future delivery issues [3]. - The transition to selling completed properties aligns with the trend of focusing land sales in core urban areas, which may lead to a package of policies aimed at stabilizing and increasing housing prices [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The sale of completed properties will reshape the development process and the competitive landscape within the real estate industry, emphasizing the importance of product quality and consumer satisfaction over rapid development [5][6]. - The competitive factors in the real estate market will shift, with a greater focus on product development capabilities and careful land acquisition, while aspects related to development speed will become less critical [6]. Group 4: Policy Context and Market Response - The current land sales are concentrated in core cities, with an average land price increase of 15.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a potential for product premium in the completed sales phase [4]. - The reform of the pre-sale system is part of a broader policy framework aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, including measures such as lowering mortgage rates and providing subsidies to stimulate housing demand [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Limiting production is viewed as a long-term benefit for the industry, helping to resolve the dilemma of oversupply and fostering high-quality development [8]. - The current market conditions, with a significant reduction in the debt ratio of real estate companies, suggest that now is an opportune time to promote the sale of completed properties [8].