被楼市反噬！这个省会，难了！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the population stagnation and potential decline in Kunming, contrasting it with the population growth in Guiyang, which has shown significant increases in recent years [2][3][4][8][10]. - Kunming's current permanent population is 8.687 million, falling short of its goal to exceed 10 million by 2025, with a net inflow of only 4,600 people after accounting for natural population changes [4][6][5]. - Guiyang's population growth is attributed to a higher birth rate and better economic conditions, with a notable increase of 182,500 residents in 2023, ranking second nationally [9][11][12]. Group 2 - The article discusses Kunming's over-reliance on real estate development at the expense of industrial growth, leading to economic challenges [17][18][67]. - Fixed asset investment data shows that real estate investment in Kunming surged to 60% of total fixed investment by 2021, coinciding with a national downturn in the real estate market [23][24][26]. - The decline in land sales revenue is alarming, dropping from 915.7 billion yuan in 2019 to just 46.28 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a severe contraction in the real estate sector [26][28][30]. Group 3 - Kunming's industrial output remains significantly lower than that of major industrial cities, with its industrial added value reaching only 170.4 billion yuan in 2023, compared to Shenzhen's 1.2 trillion yuan [35][39][44]. - The city has only one industry with over 100 billion yuan in revenue, highlighting a lack of diversified industrial strength compared to cities like Shenzhen and Suzhou, which have multiple billion-yuan industries [47][50][52]. - The article emphasizes that the neglect of industrial development during a critical growth period has left Kunming vulnerable to economic downturns [67]. Group 4 - Kunming faces a severe debt crisis, with city investment platform debts reaching 357.75 billion yuan by the end of 2022, resulting in a debt-to-revenue ratio of 550% [68][69]. - The city's financial struggles have led to issues such as unpaid wages for public transport employees, raising concerns about fiscal management and sustainability [76][78][82]. - The article suggests that cities like Kunming, which have relied heavily on real estate and debt-driven growth, will require significant time to recover from their current economic challenges [83].