【国金电新】光伏行业4月月度跟踪：Q1内外需双旺，“抢装后”需求韧性有望逐步验证

Industry Chain - "Demand expectations" have weakened, leading to a rebound and subsequent decline in industry chain prices. The prices of silicon materials have slightly decreased, with N-type recycled and granular silicon prices at 41,000 and 39,000 yuan per ton respectively, down 1.7% and stable compared to the end of March. Downstream companies are prioritizing the consumption of their polysilicon inventory and delaying procurement plans [2][10] - The production of components is expected to reach 61GW in April, a month-on-month increase of 29%, driven by ongoing demand from installations [19][22] Demand - Domestic installations saw a significant increase, with 20.24GW added in March, a year-on-year increase of 124%. Cumulatively, 59.71GW was installed from January to March, up 31% year-on-year [4][24] - Exports of battery components reached 30.01GW in March, a year-on-year increase of 11% and a month-on-month increase of 53%, indicating strong overseas demand and low inventory levels [35][46] Procurement Data Tracking - The procurement volume in April has significantly narrowed, with the median price of N-type procurement contracts decreasing slightly by 0.01 yuan/W. The total procurement volume for state-owned enterprises was 42.4GW, down 8% year-on-year [5][59] Industry Events Update - The US-China tariff conflict has begun, impacting the solar storage sector and maintaining profit barriers in the US market. Recent trade policy fluctuations suggest that domestic demand support may strengthen further [63][66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the demand resilience post-installation rush is expected to gradually validate the industry's growth potential, despite concerns about a potential sharp decline in demand [27][31]