巴菲特对黄金判断的局限性

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Warren Buffett's long-standing skepticism towards gold as an investment, emphasizing its lack of productive capacity and practical utility compared to income-generating assets like stocks and bonds [3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Value of Gold - Buffett's view underestimates gold's role as a "super-sovereign reserve" and its institutional demand, as evidenced by central banks purchasing 1,045 tons of gold in 2024, with China's reserves reaching 2,292.33 tons by March 2025 [5]. - The systemic impact of de-dollarization is underestimated, with U.S. government debt reaching $36.1 trillion (120% of GDP) and the dollar index declining by 8.53% since 2025, leading to concerns about the dollar's status as a reserve currency [5]. Group 2: Fear-Driven Investment - The article argues that fear has transformed into a long-term risk hedge, with sovereign funds and insurance companies incorporating gold into their portfolios due to structural uncertainties like geopolitical conflicts and financial market vulnerabilities [7]. - Data shows that gold prices increased by 25% during the Fed's interest rate hike cycle in 2024, and by 26.7% in early 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, indicating institutional demand rather than mere speculative behavior [7][10]. Group 3: Repricing of Risk Assets - The article highlights that gold's pricing logic as a "anti-fragile asset" is often overlooked, as its value increases when dollar credit is shaken, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of institutional allocation [9][14]. - The scarcity of gold, with central banks purchasing 1,045 tons in 2024, represents 28% of that year's mine production, providing long-term price support beyond traditional supply-demand dynamics [14]. Group 4: Non-Productive Assets in Modern Portfolios - The article critiques Buffett's assumption that asset value must derive from productivity, arguing that gold's low correlation with equities makes it an essential tool for risk diversification in modern investment portfolios [15]. - In 2025, gold's weekly correlation with the S&P 500 was -0.03, indicating its effectiveness in hedging against stock and bond volatility, especially during market downturns [15]. Group 5: Inflation Hedge and Monetary Economics - The article asserts that gold's anti-inflation properties are often ignored, as it serves as a hedge against currency devaluation, with a limited supply growth of only 1.5% annually [17]. - Historical data shows that during the high inflation period of the 1970s, gold prices surged by 1,781%, significantly outperforming stocks and bonds, underscoring its unique value during currency depreciation [17]. Group 6: Divergence in Investment Frameworks - The article concludes that Buffett's critique of gold stems from an industrial-era investment framework, while gold's current valuation is rooted in monetary economics, especially in a post-Bretton Woods context where trust in credit systems is eroding [17]. - Gold's core value has evolved from a commodity to a stabilizer of the monetary system, necessitating a reevaluation of its strategic importance in modern financial ecosystems [17].