两种穿越周期的投资方法论

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, contrasting the volatility in the U.S. stock market with the relatively stable A-share market, suggesting that investors should adopt long-term strategies like "timed dollar-cost averaging" and "diversified asset allocation" to navigate market uncertainties [4][5]. Group 1: Timed Dollar-Cost Averaging - The concept of "timed dollar-cost averaging" is a localized adaptation of Benjamin Graham's "dollar-cost averaging," focusing on investing in quality assets with long-term appreciation potential [7][9]. - Quality assets are defined by their long-term value growth expectations and clear valuation benchmarks, with examples including high-dividend stocks and reasonably priced growth stocks [9][10]. - The banking sector in the A-share market is highlighted as a suitable investment direction due to its long-term intrinsic value and stable valuation benchmarks [10][13]. Group 2: Diversified Asset Allocation - Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy" emphasizes the importance of asset allocation based on macroeconomic indicators, categorizing economic conditions into four states and recommending asset classes that perform well in each [16][20]. - The strategy involves creating sub-portfolios for each economic state and then combining them into a larger portfolio, ensuring equal risk contribution from each sub-portfolio [20][21]. - In the A-share market, high-dividend stocks can be seen as having bond-like characteristics, while cyclical stocks are linked to commodity prices, allowing investors to find suitable targets across different economic phases [21][22]. Group 3: Conclusion - Both "timed dollar-cost averaging" and "diversified asset allocation" emphasize the importance of long-term asset preservation and growth, while minimizing short-term speculative trading [31][32]. - The article advocates for simple, clear, and effective investment strategies that can help ordinary investors navigate the complexities of market cycles [32][33].