Counterpoint Research·2025-04-23 11:11Core Insights - The global PC shipment volume is projected to grow by 6.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 61.4 million units, driven by accelerated shipments ahead of U.S. tariffs and the increasing adoption of AI PCs due to the end of Windows 10 support [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Apple and Lenovo showed strong performance in Q1 2025, with Apple experiencing a 17% year-on-year increase in shipments, driven by the AI-enabled M4 chip in the MacBook series [5]. - Lenovo's shipments grew by 11%, attributed to the expansion of its AI PC product line and a diversified product portfolio, maintaining the top market share [5]. - HP and Dell achieved year-on-year shipment growth of 6% and 4%, respectively, benefiting from preemptive orders in the U.S. market [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The global PC manufacturing capacity remains highly concentrated in China, posing significant challenges for the industry in addressing tariff risks in the short term [6][8]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies may suppress the growth momentum of AI PCs, as manufacturers face dual pressures of rising costs and supply-demand contraction [8][10]. - Analysts predict that ODM and EMS manufacturers will continue to shift production capacity from China to countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico, despite facing their own tariff challenges [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future competitive landscape will depend on OEM manufacturers' capabilities in supply chain diversification, ecosystem collaboration from chips to software, and delivering optimal AI PC experiences [8]. - The U.S. market remains crucial for showcasing AI PC capabilities and selling high-end AI devices, but high tariffs may deter consumer and enterprise purchases, impacting growth and penetration rates [10].