关税对冲政策的核心逻辑（国金宏观张馨月）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" on China's economy and the importance of diplomatic relations and timely policy responses to mitigate the effects of these tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Diplomatic Efforts - Diplomatic work is prioritized to counter tariff impacts, with recent visits by Chinese leaders to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia resulting in significant agreements to deepen strategic partnerships [4]. - The response from other countries to China's diplomatic overtures has been positive, with the UK, EU, and Japan expressing intentions to strengthen ties rather than impose new barriers [3]. Group 2: Policy Measures - Timely reserve policies are being implemented to manage expectations and liquidity, with a focus on stabilizing the stock and real estate markets [5][6]. - The government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing market expectations, with recent meetings highlighting the need for proactive policy measures to positively influence market sentiment [6][7]. Group 3: Support for Trade and Employment - Targeted support for foreign trade enterprises is crucial, especially for small and medium-sized businesses facing challenges due to tariff impacts [8]. - Policies are being developed to stabilize foreign trade and employment, including tax incentives and financial support for affected companies [8][9]. Group 4: Consumer Spending and Services - Expanding service consumption is seen as a way to absorb employment pressures from foreign trade challenges, aligning with consumer trends [9]. - The government is actively promoting service consumption through various initiatives, recognizing its potential for significant growth [9]. Group 5: Liquidity Management - The issuance of special government bonds is set to peak, coinciding with a period of potential monetary policy easing, which may include interest rate cuts [10][12]. - The government is preparing for a liquidity expansion phase, with expectations of increased financial support for various sectors [12]. Group 6: Incremental Policy Adjustments - Incremental policies will be adjusted based on diplomatic relations and export performance, with a focus on enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [14][15]. - The government aims to implement policies that support specific groups, such as the unemployed and low-income families, to boost consumption [14].