美银预警软件业 “关税风暴” ，订阅模式成避风港

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America highlights the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the software industry, analyzing the performance of software companies in 2022 and the trends in different business models and end markets [1][2]. Group 1: Business Models and Market Sensitivity - Software companies showed a decline in revenue growth and billings growth in 2022, indicating mixed demand signals despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [2]. - Subscription-based companies, with over 70% of revenue from traditional subscriptions, exhibit higher revenue visibility and resilience [2]. - Consumer-oriented business models, where over 70% of revenue is tied to usage or transaction volume, face significant risks of revenue growth slowdown during economic downturns [2]. - Companies focused on the enterprise market are relatively stable due to resilient IT spending, while those targeting small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and consumers may experience more severe impacts during economic declines [2]. Group 2: Tariff Impacts - The report emphasizes the potential impact of tariffs on the software industry, particularly in the e-commerce software sector, with the U.S. government imposing at least a 10% tariff on all countries and removing minimum exemptions for China and Hong Kong [3]. Group 3: Revenue Risk Exposure - Software companies with significant revenue exposure in regions like Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) may be more vulnerable to local economic fluctuations and policy changes [4]. - Industry-specific economic fluctuations can also affect software companies' revenues, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and retail [4]. Group 4: Stock Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The enterprise value (EV) to next twelve months revenue (NTM Revenue) multiple for the software industry has dropped to 5.0x, below the 5-year and 10-year median of 7-8x, indicating a significant reduction in market expectations but potentially attractive current valuations [6]. - Approximately 15 software companies are projected to achieve a free cash flow (FCF) yield of over 8% by 2026, providing potential value support for investors [6]. Group 5: Conclusion and Outlook - The report offers a comprehensive analysis of the software industry, covering macroeconomic factors, policy changes, industry dynamics, and company fundamentals, urging investors to conduct careful analysis in the current economic environment [7]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with high revenue visibility, strong free cash flow generation, and competitive advantages in the enterprise market during economic downturns, while gradually increasing exposure to consumer-oriented and SMB-focused software companies as the macroeconomic situation improves [7].