做显而易见的事，赚不到超额收益！霍华德·马克斯最新谈：投资的反人性智慧

Core Viewpoint - The essence of successful investing lies in identifying companies with sustainable growth and ensuring that borrowed funds are lent to those capable of repayment [3][53]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Howard Marks emphasizes that outstanding investors remain emotionally stable and are not swayed by market noise [4][33]. - He highlights the difficulty of investing, stating that if emotions drive decisions, it becomes even harder to succeed [5][71]. - The current market environment is characterized by high valuations, with the S&P 500's expected P/E ratio around 22, above the historical average of 16 [7][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategies - Marks categorizes market states into three: expensive, cheap, and reasonable, suggesting that if valuations are merely reasonable, no action is typically warranted [11][12]. - He advises against excessive trading, advocating for a long-term investment approach, as staying in the market is more beneficial than trying to time it perfectly [13][42]. - Historical data indicates that buying at high P/E ratios (like 22) often leads to low future returns, typically between -2% and +2% over the next decade [15][14]. Group 3: Emotional Control and Decision Making - Successful investors share a common trait of emotional stability, which is crucial during extreme market conditions [33][22]. - Marks stresses the importance of recognizing market sentiment, whether optimistic or pessimistic, to make informed investment decisions [19][20]. - He warns against the common pitfalls of fear of loss and the fear of missing out (FOMO), which can lead to poor investment choices [67][68]. Group 4: Long-Term Investment Mindset - Marks suggests that the best investment opportunities often arise during economic downturns when fear prevails, making it difficult for investors to buy [27][30]. - He advocates for a longer holding period to ride out market fluctuations, as emotional reactions to short-term events can hinder long-term success [36][42]. - The key to successful investing is to focus on fundamental analysis rather than being distracted by short-term market noise [50][51]. Group 5: Risk and Return - Marks explains that higher returns are typically associated with higher risks, and investors must understand the risks they are taking [77][81]. - He emphasizes that risk should not be taken lightly; it requires thorough understanding and calm judgment [80][73]. - The true challenge in investing lies in balancing risk and return while maintaining a clear understanding of market dynamics [113][112].