新兴国央行增持黄金，中国连续7个月净买入

Core Viewpoint - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly purchasing gold as a safe asset, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, with predictions suggesting prices could reach between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in the second half of the year, and potentially up to $3,900 if trade tensions escalate [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Activities - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been consistently buying gold, with a net purchase of approximately 1.9 tons in May, marking seven consecutive months of net buying, bringing its total reserves to about 2,296 tons, which is 2.7 times that of Japan's central bank [1][2]. - China's gold holdings as a percentage of its foreign exchange reserves have increased to 6.7%, doubling over the past three years, reflecting a strategic move to reduce dependence on the US dollar [2][3]. - Poland's central bank has set a target for gold to constitute 20% of its foreign exchange reserves, achieving this goal in early 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions in the region [2]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Trends - The average gold reserve ratio among central banks globally is 22.2% as of March 2025, with many central banks aiming for a 20% target [2]. - The price of gold reached a historical high of over $3,500 per ounce in April, currently stabilizing between $3,300 and $3,400, with forecasts suggesting it could exceed historical highs if global economic uncertainties persist [4][5]. - JPMorgan forecasts an average gold price of $3,675 for the last quarter of 2025, maintaining an optimistic outlook due to sustained high levels of purchases by central banks and public institutions [5].