黄金风云再起

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold, driven by continuous money supply expansion and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of recent events in the Middle East and the historical performance of gold prices [3][57]. Price Performance of Gold - From December 19, 1990, to June 13, 2025, gold prices increased from $388 to $3,452.60 per ounce, representing a total increase of 789.85% over 34.51 years, with an annualized return of 6.54% [4]. - Gold experienced two significant drawdowns: a maximum drawdown of -39.12% from February 1996 to July 1999 and -44.36% from September 2011 to December 2015 [7][10]. - After each drawdown, gold prices eventually reached new highs, indicating resilience in the long-term trend [8]. Recent Trends in Gold Prices - From July 2015 to June 13, 2025, gold prices rose by 228.76%, continuing an upward trend for 9.5 years [14]. - Since January 1, 2024, gold prices have increased by 66.65%, from $2,071.80 to $3,452.60 [18]. - In 2024, gold prices rose by 27.39%, and in the current year, they have increased by 30.81% [21]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices is often negative, with notable periods of divergence [22]. - Key factors affecting gold prices include: 1. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, where rate cuts typically lead to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [24][25]. 2. US Treasury credit risk, where potential defaults may drive investors to gold as a safe haven [26]. 3. Economic recession in the US, prompting capital flight towards gold [27]. 4. Trade tensions, such as tariff wars, which can decrease dollar demand and increase gold purchases by central banks [28]. 5. Geopolitical events and wars, which heighten demand for gold as a stable asset [29]. 6. Industrial and jewelry demand, particularly from countries like India [30][31]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, with notable purchases in early 2025 [41][44]. - Poland's central bank has emerged as a significant buyer, increasing its gold reserves by 12 tons in April 2025 [46]. Conclusion - The article concludes that gold is expected to maintain a long-term upward trajectory due to ongoing monetary expansion, despite short-term fluctuations [57].