Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference held by CICC focused on the theme of "Resilience and Reconstruction," discussing key topics such as the outlook for the Chinese economy, global asset trends, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economics - CICC's Chief Economist, Peng Wensheng, highlighted the shift towards geopolitical economics, emphasizing that the past 40 years of globalization and financialization are being reevaluated due to rising inflation and wealth disparity [6][7]. - The macro impacts of geopolitical competition include increased supply constraints and the rising importance of real assets, with China holding unique advantages in green industries and AI [6][7]. Group 2: Monetary Order Reconstruction - Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, noted that the global monetary order is accelerating towards diversification and fragmentation, which may lead to significant inflows into Hong Kong stocks [10]. - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is at a historical high, suggesting potential spillover effects if Hong Kong stocks rise [10]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Chief Macro Analyst, Zhang Wenlang, observed that while GDP growth is improving, inflation remains weak, indicating a "quasi-balance" in the labor market [12]. - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue to narrow, with structural highlights anticipated in the manufacturing sector [12]. Group 4: U.S. Economic Policy - U.S. Macro Chief Economist, Liu Zhengning, discussed the implications of U.S. tariff policies, predicting a short-term stagflation effect and a shift towards functional fiscal policies to stabilize the economy [15]. Group 5: A-share Market Insights - Domestic Strategy Chief Analyst, Li Qiusuo, indicated that the A-share market has shown resilience, with expectations for a "steady then rising" trend in the second half of 2025, contingent on supportive fiscal policies [16][17]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on certainty in uncertain environments, with themes such as mergers and acquisitions, AI, and high-dividend sectors [17]. Group 6: Global Market Trends - Overseas Strategy Chief Analyst, Liu Gang, noted a growing global consensus on "de-dollarization," although the extent may not meet expectations [18]. - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience structural opportunities, with recommendations to focus on dividends, technology, and new consumption sectors [18]. Group 7: Digital Financial Services - CICC is enhancing its digital service capabilities through the "CICC Insight" platform, which provides comprehensive research and data services to institutional investors [19][20]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to improve research capabilities and deliver valuable investment insights [20].
中金公司成功举办2025年中期投资策略会