夜来风雨声，“价”落知多少:申万期货早间评论-20250613

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and geopolitical events impacting market sentiment, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI showed a mild month-on-month increase of 0.1%, lower than expectations, with core PPI growth reaching a near one-year low, raising expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1]. - The financing balance in China increased by 1.82 billion yuan to 1.8066 trillion yuan as of June 11, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investments [2][8]. - The US initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, with continuing claims rising to the highest level since the end of 2021, suggesting potential economic weakness [1]. Group 2: Commodity Markets - In the oil market, night trading showed a strong performance, with expectations of a significant decrease in US biodiesel and renewable diesel imports due to tax credit policy adjustments, potentially supporting US soybean oil prices [3]. - The May production of Malaysian palm oil was reported at 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05%, while exports rose by 25.62% to 1.3872 million tons, indicating a positive supply-demand dynamic [3]. - Copper prices declined in night trading, with low processing fees and copper prices testing smelting output, while downstream demand remains stable, particularly in the power and automotive sectors [3][17]. Group 3: Geopolitical Events - Israel's Defense Minister indicated that missile and drone attacks against Israel and its civilians are expected following Israeli strikes on Iran, which could escalate regional tensions and impact market stability [4]. - The US announced new tariffs on steel appliances starting June 23, which may affect related sectors and trade negotiations [1]. Group 4: Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and pork products from the EU, extending the investigation period to December 16, 2025, which may impact the agricultural sector [5]. - In the metallurgical sector, Mongolian small TT company faced a complete failure in its online auction for coking coal, with all 51,200 tons unsold, reflecting challenges in the coal market [6].