中金2025下半年展望 | 新能源车中游：基本面逐步进入改善通道，锂电新技术迎产业化向上拐点

Core Viewpoint - The overall price stability in the industry chain is expected in 2H25, with potential price elasticity in certain segments, supported by high operating rates of leading companies and benefits from new product premiums, indicating a recovery in fundamentals [1][3]. Demand - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is anticipated to maintain a high growth rate in 2H25, driven by policies such as trade-in incentives and a reduction in purchase tax in China, alongside a recovery in the European market due to carbon policies and subsidies [3][7]. - The domestic NEV wholesale sales in the first four months of 2025 increased by 46% year-on-year, with exports also showing strong growth, up 52% year-on-year [11]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to remain resilient, supported by declining tariffs in the U.S. and high electricity prices in Europe, which will drive commercial demand [17][19]. Industry Chain - The industry chain has reached a price bottom after significant declines in 2023-2024, with certain segments like 6F, copper foil, and iron lithium cathodes showing signs of price stabilization [3][23]. - The supply-demand structure is improving, with leading manufacturers maintaining high operating rates, while the capital expenditure in the battery and upstream materials sectors is expected to decline [25][27]. - The concentration of leading firms in the industry is increasing, with a notable improvement in the operating rates of top manufacturers [29]. New Technologies - The solid-state battery technology is expected to see accelerated industrialization in 2H25, with advancements in both semi-solid and solid-state batteries, which are crucial for applications in NEVs, eVTOLs, and robotics [4][41]. - The commercialization of semi-solid batteries is progressing, with several companies achieving significant milestones in production and testing [43]. Global Manufacturing Layout - The global manufacturing layout of the lithium battery industry is accelerating, with overseas production expected to gradually come online by the end of 2H25, driven by geopolitical factors and local supply chain demands [38][40].