时至年中，2025年大宗商品需求怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions have revised down their global economic growth forecasts for 2025, indicating a cyclical decline post-2021, which impacts demand for commodities, particularly industrial products like oil and copper [5][6][10]. Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [6]. - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also reduced its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [7]. - The World Bank has adjusted its 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward revisions [9]. - Fitch Ratings has downgraded its outlook for global sovereign debt ratings from "neutral" to "deteriorating," citing escalating global trade tensions as a key driver [10]. Commodity Demand Insights - For copper, the global consumption growth rate is projected to vary significantly based on different economic forecasts, with a potential range of 0.6% to 2.5% for 2025, indicating a divergence of 1.3% which corresponds to 350,000 tons of metal [14][15]. - The regression analysis shows that global copper consumption growth is closely tied to global economic growth, with a coefficient indicating that a 1% increase in economic growth leads to a 1.38% increase in copper consumption [13]. Oil Demand Insights - The global oil consumption growth rate is expected to range from -0.6% to 1.2% based on various forecasts, with a divergence of 0.8% translating to approximately 830,000 barrels per day [17][21]. - The regression analysis indicates that global oil consumption growth is also linked to economic growth, with a coefficient suggesting a 1% increase in economic growth results in a 1.44% increase in oil consumption [17]. Price and Trading Perspectives - Currently, copper prices remain relatively high while oil prices are at a low point, indicating a significant disparity in market conditions [19]. - The trading landscape shows considerable divergence between oil and copper, with volatility and positioning metrics reflecting differing market sentiments [21]. - The analysis suggests that oil is experiencing a "Davis double whammy," where both price and trading data have been fully priced in, while copper is facing a "Davis single whammy," with supply pressures rising and demand declining [21]. Copper-Oil Ratio Analysis - The copper-to-oil ratio is currently around 146, which is historically high, with the average ratio since 1993 being approximately 98 [22]. - The extreme copper-oil ratio is expected to undergo some correction, potentially moving towards the 2020 average of 120 [33].