中金：关税的通胀效应尚未充分显现

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting that the core CPI increased by only 0.1% month-on-month in May, with a year-on-year rate of 2.8%, indicating a controlled inflation environment despite tariff impacts [1][5]. Group 1: CPI and Inflation Trends - The total CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and rebounded to 2.4% year-on-year, both figures falling short of market expectations [1]. - Core goods saw a month-on-month growth drop from 0.1% to zero, with significant declines in new and used car prices, indicating that tariffs have not yet been fully passed on to consumers [2]. - Certain categories, such as household appliances (+4.3%) and toys (+2.2%), experienced notable price increases, but these were insufficient to elevate overall inflation [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Business Strategy - Businesses have not significantly raised prices despite supply chain disruptions, as they are managing inventory levels and awaiting potential tariff reductions [2]. - Retailers are selling off pre-tariff inventory at lower prices, absorbing some inflationary pressures by compressing profit margins [2]. Group 3: Service Inflation and Energy Prices - The supercore service inflation, excluding rent, saw a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, with declines in airfares and hotel prices suggesting reduced consumer spending on leisure activities [3]. - Gasoline prices fell by 2.6% in May, contributing to a decrease in overall inflationary pressures, although recent oil price rebounds may introduce future uncertainties [3]. Group 4: Future Inflation Expectations - The expectation is for a potential price increase in the coming months as businesses begin to pass on costs, particularly among large retailers like Walmart [4]. - Unlike the broad inflation seen in 2021-2022, the anticipated price increases are characterized as structural and one-time events rather than a result of an overheated economy [4]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve views the moderate inflation data positively but is unlikely to make significant policy changes based on a single month's data, preferring to analyze additional data sets before deciding on interest rate adjustments [5]. - The upcoming June FOMC meeting may see a slight upward revision in inflation forecasts, with a more optimistic growth outlook compared to March, potentially leading to a hawkish stance from Fed Chair Powell [5].