Consumers increased their credit utilization in April, trying to get ahead of tariffs

Consumer Credit & Spending - Vantage Score data indicates consumers are shifting from cautious behavior to net borrowers, increasing credit consumption unexpectedly [2] - Consumer credit utilization is increasing, particularly in auto loans, driven by expectations of tariff-related price increases [2][4][7] - Overall, the consumer is resilient, with average credit balances remaining relatively stable and delinquencies moderate on a historical basis [3][4] - The percentage of super prime consumers (Vantage score 780 and above) increased in April, indicating high-quality credit [4] Auto Loans - Auto loan borrowing surged in April, exceeding pre-pandemic levels, with growth rates not seen since January 2020 [7][8] - Consumers are anticipating tariffs of 50-100% on cars, leading them to purchase vehicles before prices increase [7] Student Loans - The resumption of student loan payments initially caused the average Vantage score to drop by 1 percentage point in February [8] - Consumers reacted positively to the resumption of student loan reporting, making timely payments and improving their credit scores, bringing the average Vantage score back to 702 [9] Economic Outlook & Risks - A weakening employment picture combined with increased credit utilization would be a negative sign for the economy [6] - The Fed's decision to hold steady on interest rates means consumers will continue to face relatively elevated interest payments [10][11] - High interest rates may lead to fewer consumers taking out new mortgages or maxing out credit cards, resulting in lower credit utilization [11] - The Fed is concerned about the potential inflationary impact of increased pricing, partly related to tariffs, and is waiting to see the results before making any sudden movements [12]