EUR/USD to 1.40 is Feasible Overshoot: 3-Minute MLIV

Market Expectations & Trade Relations - Market expectations regarding US-China trade talks are realistic, with no anticipation of a grand deal [1][2] - A minor agreement on rare earth exports in exchange for tech exports may disappoint the market [2] - US effective tariff rate on all trade partners reached over 7% in April, a multiple of the rate in the past 25 years [3] - Tariff rate on China was up in the high 30% in April, subsequently decreasing but remaining at extreme levels [3] - Without a positive surprise in trade talks, the market may drift lower as profit-taking begins [4] Equity Market Performance - No fresh record highs are expected for US or global stocks [5] - US stocks have underperformed global stocks by approximately 7 trillion over the past four months [5] - US stocks experienced a sharp decline from early February to mid-March, subsequently keeping pace with global stocks [6] - A new positive catalyst is needed for US stocks to reach fresh record highs [7] Currency Market Outlook - The possibility of Euro/Dollar reaching 140 is being discussed [7] - The US dollar is expected to structurally decline significantly in the coming years, though not in a straight line [9] - An overshoot to 140 on Euro/Dollar is feasible but not expected this year [9]