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You Need to Pay Attention to the Bond Markets
Principles by Ray Dalioยท2025-05-21 19:55

Bond Market Fundamentals - The bond market serves as the foundation for all markets, acting as the backbone [1] - It establishes the risk-free interest rate, influencing all asset returns [1] - A breakdown in the bond market's supply-demand balance leads to rising long rates relative to short rates and currency depreciation [1] - Gold prices increase due to movement away from the bond market caused by supply-demand imbalances [2] Central Bank Dilemma - Supply-demand imbalances in the bond market pressure central banks [2] - Central banks face a choice between allowing interest rates to rise, negatively impacting markets and the economy, or printing money to buy bonds [3] - Printing money to meet bond demand creates inflationary pressures [3]