Trump says US-China deal is done, but this analyst says it's just 'temporary cease fire'

Trade Agreement Analysis - The agreement between the US and China is viewed as a temporary ceasefire rather than a significant advancement [2] - Tariffs are expected to remain at their previous levels [2] - China will export more rare earth minerals to the US, and the US will remove some export controls [3] - The specifics of which export controls will be removed and the scale of rare earth exports remain unclear [3][4] Leverage and Trade Dynamics - China has leverage due to its control over the export of essential materials like rare earths and industrial magnets [5][6] - Small industrial magnets are crucial for the automobile industry and other high-tech sectors [6] - The extent to which Chinese consumers and exporters are feeling the pressure from elevated tariffs is uncertain [6] - The initial assumption that the US had significant leverage due to China's economic situation appears to be less accurate than anticipated [6][7] US Objectives and Potential Outcomes - The Trump administration initially sought a restructuring of the Chinese economy, including an end to subsidies, overcapacity, and intellectual property theft [9] - Previous agreements resulted in Chinese promises to buy more goods, which were not fully kept [9][10] - Future outcomes are likely to involve small concessions from China and commitments to increase purchases [10] - Major changes in the Chinese economy are not expected [11]