Fmr. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy: Timeline for Trump's big bill will be driven by the debt ceiling

Tax & Spending Bill & Debt Ceiling - Republicans aim to pass President Trump's tax and spending bill by July 4th, facing challenges in the House and Senate [1] - The debt ceiling will drive the timing of the bill's completion, as it forces action [3] - The framework of the bill will likely remain the same due to reconciliation rules, limiting potential changes [8] Political Dynamics & Negotiation - President Trump's influence is crucial in aligning Republican votes in both the House and Senate [4] - Some Republican senators are outspoken against the bill, seeking leverage to tweak it [5][6] - Speaker Johnson needs to manage Senate changes to ensure the bill's passage in the House [6][7] Deficit & Long-Term Concerns - The speaker is concerned about the deficit, but the real drivers are Social Security and Medicare [10][11] - Bipartisanship is needed to address the long-term drivers of the debt, but public education is lacking [12] - The current bill includes populist giveaways, such as no taxes on tips, which may not significantly impact most servers [15][16] China & Critical Minerals - China has leverage over the US due to dependence on critical minerals [25] - The US needs to speed up the process of developing new mines to reduce China's leverage [26] - China controls 90% of critical minerals and 95% of the processing, posing a national security concern [27]