Could Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz?

Market Impact of Geopolitical Tensions - Oil prices are surging following strikes by Israel, with the market closely watching Iran's response [1] - The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint, with Iran potentially disrupting a quarter of the world's oil supply [3] - JPMorgan simulations assign a 7% probability to a worst-case scenario of oil reaching $130 per barrel [6] Potential Disruptions and Risks - A worst-case scenario could see oil prices rise to $120 per barrel due to Strait of Hormuz closure [4] - Lower-level actions by Iran, such as harassing shipping, could increase shipping rates and cause tanker shortages [4] - Traders are buying call options to protect against potential escalation [5] Iranian Oil Supply - Sanctions could be reimposed, potentially removing Iranian barrels from the market [8] - The market needs to prepare for the possibility of Iranian barrels being removed from the market, even without military action [9]