Israel-Iran conflict unlikely to cause oil supply disruption, says Energy Aspects' Richard Bronze

Energy Market Impact of Geopolitical Events - Rising oil prices will likely lead to increased gasoline prices [2] - The market is assessing whether the current rally in crude oil prices will escalate further [3] - The energy sector and commodities could be viewed as an insurance against geopolitical risks, but the timing of buying this insurance is uncertain [4] - A dramatic escalation is viewed as unlikely, as maintaining energy market flow is in the best interest of developed countries, Israel, and even Iran [5] - The probability of a supply disruption is not currently high, though risks exist [8] Investment Strategies - Investors who previously abandoned the energy sector are now considering their options regarding crude oil [2] - It may be too early to sell or short positions given the uncertainty heading into the weekend [7] - If there is escalation without infrastructure damage, the market may soften next week [6] - It might not be advisable to buy insurance (energy sector investments) ahead of the weekend, pending potential escalation [6] Geopolitical Considerations - The US might intervene to improve the situation [1] - President Trump may use the current situation to pressure Iran to renegotiate the nuclear deal [9] - Iran may consider advancing its nuclear program, weighing its options in the current environment [9][10]