Oil fears could dissipate if Israel-Iran attacks void energy facilities: Rapid-Ann's Bob McNally

Geopolitical Risk & Energy Market Impact - Initial oil price surge of 13% following Iran's missile attack on Israel, but limited impact due to no direct hits on Iranian energy infrastructure [2] - Market anticipates potential crude oil price increase contingent on three triggers: mass casualties in Israel, attacks on US military assets, or attacks on critical Gulf energy infrastructure [5][6] - Historical patterns suggest market reversals after initial spikes following attacks, provided violence remains contained to military targets [9][10] Potential Escalation Scenarios - Risk of Israel targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including refineries and gas stations, potentially via cyber attacks [8] - A major concern is a potential attack on Kharg Island, responsible for 90% of Iranian oil exports, which could lead to a significant oil price surge [12] - Iran's threat to interdict shipping in the Strait of Hormuz if its oil exports are blocked, potentially leading to broader conflict and disruption [13][14] Historical Context & Market Behavior - Reference to the 2019 Abqaiq attack by Iran on Saudi refineries as a significant precedent [6][11] - Comparison to past events like the Gulf Wars and Operation Praying Mantis, where the US military quickly neutralized threats [13] - Market's tendency to "ignore" or become "desensitized" if attacks are telegraphed and avoid critical energy infrastructure damage [6]