The Fed is not going to cut rates in this week’s meeting, says Roger Ferguson

Fed's Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed is likely to maintain a vigilant stance and signal patience before cutting rates, potentially disappointing some [2][3] - The Fed is in a "wait and see" mode, hoping for further disinflation but remaining vigilant [2][3] - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the upcoming meetings [2] - The Fed needs to be cautious this year, given the impact of oil prices on headline inflation and the need to prevent spillover into core inflation [6] Inflation and Rate Cut Considerations - Cutting rates is not feasible with inflation at 3.8% [3] - The Fed is on guard against signaling a rush to cut rates, considering problematic short-term inflation expectations [4] - A "good rate cut" (due to easing inflation rather than economic weakness) would be desirable [7] - Achieving a "good rate cut" this year is unlikely due to persistent risks; greater clarity and continued disinflation are needed, possibly next year [8] - The Fed should not overemphasize recent good inflation news, as past patterns have been unfavorable [10] - The Fed was late in addressing the previous inflation surge [11] External Factors and Uncertainty - Geopolitical risks, such as the Straits of Hormuz situation, need to be considered [4][5] - Uncertainties surrounding tariffs, oil impact, and immigration reform add complexity to the Fed's decision-making [8]