Investors need to worry about confluence of energy sector risks, says CSIS' Clay Seigle

Geopolitical Risk & Oil Market Vulnerability - Rising tensions between Iran and Israel, potentially involving the US, are causing concern in the Persian Gulf area [2] - Approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and products move through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a vulnerable chokepoint [3] - Navigation GPS signals in the region are reportedly being jammed, coinciding with rising tensions, increasing the risk profile for oil and gas shipping [4] Shadow Tanker Fleet & Safety Concerns - Some tankers operating in the region are part of the shadow tanker fleet, used to evade sanctions, and may not meet standard specifications [5] - Shadow tankers are often older, more prone to oil spills, and crewed by less competent personnel, increasing risk [5][6] Oil Price & Supply Disruption - WTI crude oil prices are up 4% intraday, reflecting market nervousness about potential disruptions [6] - Traders are evaluating the risk of supply disruption, considering the potential volume reduction and duration [7] - Despite apparent full-scale war conditions involving Iran, benchmark oil prices are only in the mid $70s, which is surprising to some [8] Market Sentiment & Demand - The prevailing sentiment in the oil market is that a major oil supply halt is unlikely [9] - Demand is slowing down globally, according to the International Energy Agency [9][10] - Saudi Arabia and Iran have been getting along better recently, reducing the risk of disruption [10]