Equity markets are looking vulnerable, says Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli

Market Vulnerability & Risks - Market is looking vulnerable due to elevated valuations and limited capacity to absorb uncertainty [1][2] - Multiple risks are on the horizon, including tariffs, fiscal uncertainty, and the debt ceiling [3] - Poor economic growth in May indicates a downtick in growth momentum [3] Geopolitical Impact & Oil Prices - Geopolitical situation creates suspense, but oil prices are not acting particularly alarmed, remaining below Friday's highs [4] - Markets have generally absorbed geopolitical uncertainty well in the past, including conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and between India and Pakistan [6] - Oil is considered the transmission mechanism for geopolitical issues to become broader macro problems [6] Treasury Yields & Economic Data - Inability of treasuries to spike higher despite geopolitical anxiety and weak economic data (missed retail sales, industrial production, and NHP housing survey) is notable [5] - Upward pressure on yields is attributed to fiscal imbalances and inflationary implications of tariffs [5] Labor Market & Fed Policy - Deteriorating jobless claims, especially continuing jobless claims, are a red flag indicating softness in the labor economy [7][8] - May data points to a downtick in growth momentum [7] - Fed is expected to maintain a relatively status quo outlook, seeing risks to both sides of its mandate [9] - The 2015 DO (likely referring to a member of the Federal Open Market Committee) potentially going from two to one (likely referring to a change in their dot plot projection) [10]