Markets should assume Senate version of tax bill will be final, says Pangea's Terry Haines

US Fiscal Policy & Debt Ceiling - A bipartisan bill to address the debt ceiling is possible by July 4th, despite conventional wisdom suggesting difficulties [2][3] - The core structure of the agreement is intact, with adjustments being made to programs to finalize the deal [4] - Markets are primarily focused on the bill's passage and the permanence of certain provisions [9] - Equity markets are currently prioritizing immediate gratification over concerns about increased debt and deficit [10] Defense Spending & Geopolitical Implications - Defense spending is projected to increase to approximately $1 trillion [7] - Congress will likely be informed but not necessarily play a co-equal role in decisions regarding potential US involvement in conflicts, such as the Israel-Iran situation [7][8] - Formal consultation with Congress would be required for more aggressive actions involving direct US military involvement [9] Market Reactions & Bond Market Dynamics - There's a possibility of a negative reaction from the bond market after the debt ceiling issue is resolved [12] - Bond markets may be digesting the Senate's approach of not substantially adding to the deficit [13]