President Trump considers Iran strikes: Here's what to know

Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding potential US military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, with President Trump considering direct strikes [1] - The Iranian Supreme Leader's statement suggests any US military entry would be met with "irreparable damage," indicating a high risk of escalation [1] - US military assesses potential Iranian movement to preset strikes against US assets in the region, raising concerns about retaliation [1] - The potential consequences of a US strike include Iranian retaliation against US bases, a wider war, and the ultimate goal of the US action (regime change or limited strike) remains unclear [1] - The command and control capabilities of Iran are uncertain, especially after the Israeli decapitation attack, making it difficult to predict the speed and scale of their response [1] Strategic Considerations - The report questions the purpose of President Trump's social media activity, suggesting it could be a form of attempted diplomacy or saber-rattling [1] - The report draws a parallel between the situation with Iran and the US approach to tariffs, suggesting a potential for maximalist threats followed by a scaled-back outcome [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the political and economic goals of military action, not just the military aspects [4][5] - The report suggests a non-regime change option of targeting only the nuclear program and offering economic assistance to Iran if they abandon the program [7] - The report highlights the need for confidence in both the success of the military strike and the ability to work with the Iranian regime afterward [8]