Alan Blinder: Markets are paying too little attention to oil situation

Inflation & Tariffs - The market is underestimating the potential impact of oil prices, which could rival or even exceed the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [3][4] - Tariffs' inflationary impact is still anticipated, though not yet significantly observed [1][8] - The effects of tariff increases on prices are largely unseen to date [8] Oil Market - Geopolitical strife in the Middle East introduces significant uncertainty regarding future oil prices [3] - A rapid surge in oil prices, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel due to events like the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, could shock industrial economies [5] Monetary Policy - Current Federal Reserve policy is considered slightly tight, with a real interest rate a little high [6] - The Federal Reserve can afford to wait and observe the development of tariff and oil uncertainties [7] Housing Market - The housing sector, particularly new residential construction spending, constitutes approximately 4% of GDP and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve due to its interest rate sensitivity [9][10]