SGH Macro Advisors CEO Sassan Ghahramani on impact of escalating conflict between Iran and Israel

Geopolitical Risk & US Policy - Strategic ambiguity in US policy is being observed in real-time regarding Iran, specifically concerning nuclear negotiations and potential military involvement alongside Israel [2] - The US may consider military action against Iran's Fordo nuclear plant, a site buried approximately 05 mile (804672 millimeters) deep, potentially using GBU57 bunker-busting bombs [5][6] - The potential US military action against the Fordo nuclear plant raises concerns about escalation, oil prices, defense spending, and US involvement in the region [7] Iran's Nuclear Ambitions & Regional Impact - Iran has shown aggression in nuclear negotiations, particularly regarding uranium enrichment [4] - Despite Trump's initial eagerness for a nuclear deal, events have derailed the process [3] - The Islamic Republic leaders are homicidal, but they're not suicidal, suggesting a limit to escalation [9] Oil Market & Retaliation - Financial markets are interested in escalation levels and the potential closure of the Straits of Hormuz, which would significantly impact oil prices [7][8] - Retaliatory capabilities of Iran are considered exaggerated, with Iran seen as militarily diminished [8] - The Islamic regime's will to escalate into a regional conflict is questionable [9]