Iran could return to 2019 playbook and hit crude oil targets in Middle East, says RBC's Helima Croft

Geopolitical Risk & Oil Market Impact - The market perceives a 50/50 chance of US airstrikes on Iran's Fordo enrichment facility, potentially escalating regional conflict [3] - US intervention could prompt Iran to deploy short-range missiles against regional facilities in the Gulf and attack ships, mirroring the 2019 playbook [4][5] - Iran's 2019 actions, including targeting tankers and Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility (taking off half of Saudi Arabia's production temporarily), serve as a warning [5] - If Iran perceives an existential threat, it may disregard China's concerns and curtail energy supplies, prioritizing imposing costs on the US [9][10] Potential for Sustained Oil Price Spike - Major Middle East conflicts have historically caused multi-month or year-long disruptions of over 1 million barrels per day [13] - Iranian-backed militias in Iraq pose a risk to Iraq's energy facilities, which produce around 4 million barrels per day [14] - Despite the US Fifth Fleet's presence, Iran could mine the Straits of Hormuz or target oil tankers, disrupting oil transit [14][15] - Reports indicate Iran is aggressively jamming ship transponders, with Qatar Energy and the Greek shipping authority issuing warnings about traversing the Straits of Hormuz [15] Economic Consequences - Higher oil prices would negatively impact the US consumer and hinder President Trump's efforts to reduce inflation [8]