Top oil analyst Paul Sankey: Actual energy impact has been on Israel, not the Gulf

Market Outlook & Price Trends - Commodity oil may be topping out at current levels, with a Wall Street view to fade the move [1][2] - The market anticipates a flat futures curve for oil, suggesting a peaking out [9][11] - The oil price implicitly real is really backwardated, if you would deflate it [10] Geopolitical Risks & Supply Disruptions - Potential for conflict involving Iran poses a risk, but Iran has historically been an unreliable oil supplier [2][4] - A missile war against tankers in the Gulf is not off the table, potentially causing a super spike in price [4][5] - Physical outages have impacted Israel, with the Leviathan platform shut down by 2 BCF (billion cubic feet) a day, affecting Egypt's gas supplies [6] Refining & Investment - Volatility in the oil market is not good for equities, making it hard to capitalize on oil price [8][9] - US E&Ps (Exploration and Production companies) cut back CapEx (Capital Expenditures) preemptively with oil in the $60s [12][13] - Oil companies will generate a cash return to shareholders that's undervalued in the market over time [15]