Wharton's Siegel on Iran strike: Potential positives and negatives for markets have both gone up

Geopolitical Risk & Market Reaction - The market reaction to the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites was surprisingly muted [1][3] - Poly market estimates a 23% probability of Iran attempting to close the Gulf of Hormuz by July [4] - Successful military action by Israel and the US could give China pause regarding its intentions for Taiwan [9] - The market is balancing the positive aspects of neutralizing Iran against the risks of retaliation [8][10] Economic Factors & Investment Strategies - The market believes it can handle a 10% general tariff and 30% tariff on China, assuming it doesn't worsen [11] - New all-time highs in the S&P are attainable in the next several weeks, barring significant action by Iran [12] - Companies may leverage AI to offset the higher prices resulting from tariffs, increasing efficiency and margins [13][15] - Investment opportunities may lie in the potential users of AI who can significantly increase operational efficiency, rather than solely in AI suppliers [14] Middle East Situation - The damage done to Iran's nuclear capabilities has likely set back their progress towards producing a bomb [6] - Neutralizing the Houthis and securing shipping in the Red Sea and Hormuz are key considerations [5]