Iran's Regime Is Still Dangerous, Says Espser

Geopolitical Assessment - The operation was successful in execution, with aircraft delivering GBU 57 and submarine-launched lambs offshore [1] - A good battle damage assessment is needed, but may be incomplete until inspectors are on the ground [3] - Potential Iranian responses include using Shia militia groups in Iraq, launching missiles against U S forces in the Middle East, targeting American officials globally, or disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [4][5] - Iran may calibrate its response to satisfy domestic needs without provoking a significant escalation from the US [7] - The effectiveness of Iran's chain of command is uncertain, potentially explaining the delay in response [9][10] Nuclear Concerns - There are concerns about Iran's potential to reignite efforts to achieve nuclear status, especially with 400 kilograms of enriched uranium missing [11] - Iran possesses approximately 900 pounds (转换后约 408 公斤) of 60% enriched uranium, close to the level needed for nuclear weapons, and its location is unknown [11][12] - Even if Iranian infrastructure is destroyed, it may be rebuilt over time, potentially energizing their nuclear ambitions [12][13] Deterrence and Regional Security - Deterrence is based on capability and willingness, with the US demonstrating its willingness to act [14][15] - A clear message is important for deterring disruption of waterways like the Strait of Hormuz [17] - Potential responses to Iranian aggression in the Strait of Hormuz include targeting the Iranian navy, mine layers, swarm boats, and missile batteries [17][18] - The US involvement is contingent on Iran's response, with a preference for negotiation between Iran and Israel, including a return to the nonproliferation regime [20][22]