Upcoming negotiations with Iran will be tough, says Fmr. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper

Geopolitical Analysis - The US and Qatar anticipated Iran's weak response to a strike, potentially providing an off-ramp for further retaliation [2] - Iran is messaging domestically that its missile strikes had impact, while the reality was calibrated to have no impact [3][4] - The US encourages Israel to seek a peaceful settlement with Iran [4] - Israel is potentially days away from completing its objectives of dismantling Iran's nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missiles, air force, and defense industrial complex [5][6] - Negotiations with Iran will be difficult, requiring an enduring presence and surveillance of its nuclear infrastructure, including locating missing 900 lb of highly enriched uranium [9] - Israel is targeting symbols of Iranian oppression to provoke the Iranian people to rise up [11][12] Deterrence and Military Capability - The US has the capability to enter enemy airspace and bomb targets without being attacked or known, demonstrating technological prowess [15] - President Trump has the will to conduct such operations when America's interests are at stake, improving deterrence [16] - Operation Midnight Hammer was a very secretive, complicated, complex and successful mission [13] NATO and Defense Spending - NATO allies have agreed to a target of 5% of GDP for defense spending, but some countries like Spain are backsliding [16] - The NATO secretary general believes Russia could rearm and be prepared to go after NATO partners by 2030, requiring adjusted timelines for defense spending [17] Potential Risks - Iran could threaten the Strait of Hormuz and cut off or inhibit oil supplies [20]