Regime change in Iran is a 'wish, not a strategy', says Centerview Partner's Richard Haass

Geopolitical Analysis - The attack by Iran on the US military base in Qatar was designed to de-escalate tensions and avoid casualties, serving as a performative act to save face [2][3] - Iran's priorities are consolidating the regime and improving the Iranian economy to placate the people [4][5] - Iran may seek to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program, viewing it as a deterrent against attacks [6][7] - Regime change in Iran is unlikely to be successful if imposed externally and requires internal support, drawing parallels to the outcomes in Libya and Iraq [9][10] Strategic Considerations - The US is likely to restrain Israel from significantly harming Iran economically to avoid driving up world oil prices or provoking attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities or in the Straits of Hormuz [12][13] - The US should not focus on regime change as a policy goal, as it is difficult to implement and requires internal factors [13] - The extent of damage to Iranian nuclear sites like Fordo and the location of Iranian enriched uranium and advanced centrifuges remain unknown [7][8]